Decision Making

Download PDF by Richard B. Jones: 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

By Richard B. Jones

ISBN-10: 0470592419

ISBN-13: 9780470592410

Discover ways to observe the basic points of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all prefer to do away with danger from our decision-making, yet regrettably this aim is unachievable. No unmarried across-the-board answer holds the facility to take on all the surprises lifestyles throws at us. up to we strive to prevent them, damaging results will unavoidably happen. . . occasionally. but there are belongings you can do to aid stack the deck on your prefer. You don't need to be a statistician or mathematician to turn into knowledgeable in handling the future's uncertainty. 20% probability of Rain permits the reader to shape a strong knowing of threat that may be utilized to decision-making by:

  • Teaching the basic options of threat throughout the broad use of functional occasions to aid the reader practice what's discovered to a wide selection of situations
  • Providing real illustrations of possibility research, possibility evaluation, and danger administration, complementing the rigorous arithmetic taught in so much chance courses
  • Communicating complicated possibility ideas in an easy, transparent, and engaging demeanour utilizing real-life examples and problems
  • Including case reports, from NASA and different industries, offering the root for extra discussions and permitting the reader to work out real purposes of risk-based decision-making
  • From participants to companies to executive businesses, probability is the typical denominator. profitable concepts for handling the future's uncertainty or threat could seem basic and simple at the floor, but they are often super advanced and sophisticated. realizing the easiest how one can hire those multi-faceted strategies is necessary within the face of the ups and downs that loom in the back of each selection we make. lifestyles is really a sequence of selections and 20% probability of Rain may help deal with the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, complicated, and shrinking world.

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    Extra info for 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

    Example text

    Decision-makers who lack skill tend to jump far too quickly to the either–or alternatives. They do not give enough time and mental energy to generating at least three or four possibilities. ’ Alfred Sloan, the renowned President of General Motors, was even known to adjourn meetings in which he was presented with two alternatives. ‘Please go away and generate more options,’ he would say. The art of effective decision making ■ 29 You need to open your mind into wide focus to consider all possibilities, and that is where generating ideas (see Chapter 5) comes in.

    Some of it will be immediately apparent, but other data may be missing. 1 The classic approach to decision making that is not immediately to hand, provided that a planned delay is acceptable. Remember the distinction between available and relevant information. One classic mistake is to look at the broad decision and then turn to the information we have that will help us decide. ’ They are confusing two kinds of information – as is illustrated below. 2 Information available Information categories Life would be much simpler if you could just use the information at your disposal, rather than that which you really need to make the decision!

    They are confusing two kinds of information – as is illustrated below. 2 Information available Information categories Life would be much simpler if you could just use the information at your disposal, rather than that which you really need to make the decision! So often quantities of data are advanced – there are acres of it on the internet – that merely add bulk to, say, a management report without giving its recommendations any additional (metaphorical) weight. The rapid growth of methods of communication such as faxes, voice mail, e-mail, junk mail and the internet has now contributed to a new disease: Information Overload Syndrome.

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    20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk by Richard B. Jones

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